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Monza
Cagliari
Serie ALeague
MonzaVSUpcoming
Cagliari19 Oct 2026, 17:30Updated 19 Oct 2026, 08:42
AI recommendation
Under 2.5
66%
MEDIUM confidenceStrong databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 10 Oct 2026, 16:38
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
MON
0.91
CAG
1.15
Recent form adjustment
MON0.99×
CAG1.02×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 0.91
- Away expected goals (model)
- 1.15
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 0.93/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 1.44/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 0.98/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 1.62/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.45 / 1.40 (50 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x0.99
- Away recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Sample size
- 21 home games, 41 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy42%
Settled predictions1571
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff19 Oct 2026, 17:30
- Prediction generated10 Oct 2026, 16:38
- Data last updated19 Oct 2026, 08:42