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Spalding United
Hebburn Town
Enterprise National League NorthLeague
Spalding UnitedVSUpcoming
Hebburn Town20 Oct 2026, 19:45Updated 15 Oct 2026, 02:27
AI recommendation
Over 1.5
79%
MEDIUM confidenceLimited databaseline-poisson-v1
Generated 3 Oct 2026, 18:21
Why this prediction
Expected goals (model)
SPA
2.13
HETO2
0.79
Recent form adjustment
SPA1.02×
HETO20.98×
- Home expected goals (model)
- 2.13
- Away expected goals (model)
- 0.79
- Home team scoring rate at home
- 1.71/game
- Away team conceding rate away
- 2.04/game
- Away team scoring rate away
- 1.08/game
- Home team conceding rate at home
- 0.86/game
- League baseline (home/away goals per game)
- 1.68 / 1.15 (96 games)
- Home recent form adjustment
- x1.02
- Away recent form adjustment
- x0.98
- Sample size
- 4 home games, 4 away games
Lineups, injuries and referee data aren't yet part of the pipeline — this reflects exactly what the model used, nothing implied beyond it.
Ask Mr Footy about this matchReliability
Live performance, this market
Accuracy79%
Settled predictions1610
Confidence-band reliability
This band has provenWell calibrated
Observed vs. stated gap+1pp
Timeline
- Kickoff20 Oct 2026, 19:45
- Prediction generated3 Oct 2026, 18:21
- Data last updated15 Oct 2026, 02:27